Forecast: ’08 RV Shipments to Fall 13.8%
Wholesale RV shipments are expected to decline 13.8% this year compared to 2007, according to a revised forecast by economist Richard Curtin of the University of Michigan.
In the spring issue of RoadSigns, a newsletter published by the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA), Curtin said that shipments are expected to be 304,700 units this year, down from 353,400 in 2007. In December, Curtin predicted that 2008 shipments would decline 4.8%.
“All types of RVs are expected to decline due to higher credit standards, falling household wealth, slower growth in real incomes and diminished consumer confidence,” Curtin wrote.
He said that recent cuts in key Federal Reserve interest rates will have little impact on RV sales because the higher credit standards will qualify fewer buyers. He added that the pending federal tax rebates as part of President Bush’s stimulus package also will “have a minor impact on RV sales.”
Curtin said that shipments should reach a low point in the first quarter and “(remain) at that lower level during the balance of 2008 and into the start of 2009.”