‘Cliff’ Concerns Subdue Consumer Sentiment
U.S. consumers peering over the “fiscal cliff” don’t like what they see.
The Associated Press reported that fears of sharp tax increases and government spending cuts set to take effect next week sent consumer confidence tumbling in December to its lowest level since August.
The Conference Board said Thursday (Dec. 27) that its consumer confidence index fell for the second straight month in December to 65.1, down from 71.5 in November.
The survey showed consumers’ outlook for the next six months deteriorated to its lowest level since 2011 — a signal to Lynn Franco, the board’s director of economic indicators, that consumers are worried about the tax hikes and spending cuts that take effect Jan. 1 if the White House and Congress can’t reach a budget deal.
Earlier this week a report showed consumers held back shopping this holiday season, another indication of their concerns about possible tax increases.
The December drop in confidence “is obvious confirmation that a sudden and serious deterioration in hopes for the future took place in December — presumably reflecting concern about imminent ‘fiscal cliff’ tax increases,” said Pierre Ellis, an economist with Decision Economics.
The decline in confidence comes at a critical time when the economy is showing signs of improvement elsewhere.
- A recovery in the housing market is looking more sustainable. On Thursday, the government said new-home sales increased in November at the fastest seasonally adjusted annual pace in 2 1/2 years.
- And the job market has made slow but steady gains in recent months. The average number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits over the past month fell to the lowest level since March 2008.
But the political wrangling in Washington threatens the economy’s slow, steady progress.
President Barack Obama and House members returned to Washington Thursday to resume talks with just days to go before the deadline.
But Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid warned that the government appears to be headed over the “fiscal cliff” because talks had gone nowhere. The Nevada Democrat made the comments minutes after the consumer confidence report was released.
The combination of weaker consumer confidence and dimming hopes of a deal on the “fiscal cliff” hit financial markets hard Thursday.
A short fall over the cliff won’t push the economy into recession. But most economists expect some tax increases to take effect next year. That could slow economic growth.
While consumers are more worried about where the economy is headed, they were upbeat about present conditions, according to the latest survey. Their assessment of current economic conditions rose this month to the highest level since August 2008.
A key reason for that is gas prices hit a 2012 low of $3.21 per gallon last week. Normally, that would prompt consumers to spend more on holiday shopping.
But the opposite has happened. A report from MasterCard Advisors Spending pulse indicated sales grew in the two months before Christmas at the weakest rate since 2008, when the country was in a deep recession.
There were other distractions this holiday season. In late October, Superstorm Sandy battered the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states, which account for 24 percent of U.S. retail sales. That, coupled with the presidential election, hurt sales during the first half of November.
Shopping picked up in the second half of November. But “fiscal cliff” worries dampened sales in December.