Investor Recaps This Week's Good RV News
Editor's Note: The investment firm of Robert W. Baird & Co. issued a client newsletter after this week's release of the January wholesale RV shipments from the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA). Excerpts from the Baird newsletter follow:
January RV shipments up 31%. Wholesale shipments improved 31% on robust growth in all categories. Motorhome (Class A and C)shipments jumped 34%, while towable (travel trailer and fifth-wheel) shipments increased 31% in January. The growth is driven by better retail, lean inventory and strong dealer sentiment. The January shipment growth is a robust start to 2013 after solid growth in 2012 — both motorhome (Class A and C) and towable (TT and 5W) shipments grew 14% in 2012.
Towable (TT and 5W) shipments up 31%. Travel trailer shipments grew 35%, while fifth-wheel shipments increased 19%. The strong January result marks the 17th consecutive month of YOY growth.
Motorhome (A and C) shipments grew 34%. Robust motorhome growth continued as Class A shipments grew 31% while Class C shipments jumped 39%. The strong growth in recent months has been off relatively easy comparisons, which generally persist through the first half of 2012.
Thor. The data is less relevant for Thor, which already reported preliminary revenue and backlog for the January quarter — towable revenue grew 18%, while motorhome sales soared 100%. We model Thor's towable unit shipment growth at +16% for the quarter and motorhome unit shipment growth at +92%.
Winnebago. January marks the second month of Winnebago's fiscal Q2. The Dec.-Jan. industry growth in motorhomes (Class A & C; +38%) is roughly consistent with our +45% expectation for Winnebago shipments. We model Winnebago towable shipment growth of +3% for the February quarter (versus the quarter-to-date industry growth of 20%).