Curtin: Consumer Sentiment Nears 6-Yr. High
Consumer sentiment improved in late June, ending the month close to a near six-year high set in May, as optimism among higher-income families rose to its strongest level in six years, a survey released on Friday (June 28) showed.
Reuter’s reported that the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s final reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment was 84.1 points, just slightly below a near six-year high of 84.5 in May. The late-June figure was higher than the preliminary reading of 82.7. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the final June reading of 82.8.
“Consumers believe the (economic) recovery has achieved an upward momentum that will not be easily reversed,” survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement. Curtin also provides wholesale shipment forecasting for the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA).
He added the recent drop in stock prices and the jump in mortgage rates have not caused a deterioration in consumers’ view on the economy.
“To be sure, few high or low income consumers expect the economy to post robust gains or think the unemployment rate will drastically shrink during the year ahead,” Curtin said.
Consumer sentiment is considered by some economists as a predictor on consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy.
The latest Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan data was consistent with the June consumer confidence readings from the Conference Board released earlier this week. The research group’s U.S. consumer confidence index rose to 81.4 this month, the highest since January 2008.
Household expenditures, however, have remained sluggish despite improving optimism. Consumer spending grew at an annualized 2.6% in first quarter, faster than the 1.8% pace in the last three months of 2012 but slower than an earlier government estimate of 3.4%.
The barometer of current economic conditions ended at 93.8 in June, down from 98.0 in May. This was above an early June reading of 92.1 and economists’ forecast of 92.8.
The survey’s gauge of consumer expectations ended June at its highest level since October at 77.8, up from 75.8 in May. The latest reading was stronger than the preliminary June figure of 76.7. Economists had projected a late-June figure of 77.0.